The TGIF edition.

Joseph Stiglitz:

This year will be bleak. The question we need to be asking now is, how can we enhance the likelihood that we will eventually emerge into a robust recovery?

Paul Krugman: Obama is absolutely right about the diagnosis, but falls short of applying the cure.

Whatever the explanation, the Obama plan just doesn’t look adequate to the economy’s need. To be sure, a third of a loaf is better than none. But right now we seem to be facing two major economic gaps: the gap between the economy’s potential and its likely performance, and the gap between Mr. Obama’s stern economic rhetoric and his somewhat disappointing economic plan.

Kathleen Parker: The cognitive dissonance of conservative orthodoxy and reality gives me a headache.

Here's a paradoxical thought to get you started: We have to increase taxes and federal programs to save the capitalist system.

Make it go away.

EJ Dionne:

It has been so long since Congress needed to pass a huge and urgent package of spending increases and tax cuts that few people understand how the politics of such a thing might work.

David Brooks:

Maybe Obama can pull this off, but I have my worries. By this time next year, he’ll either be a great president or a broken one.

And we Villagers will take both sides so as to be proven right, regardless.

Howard Fineman: A Bumpy Start (A monograph on how the Villagers will keep score.)

Added: Nate Silver: The public says yea to Obama's stimulus plans (A monograph on how the public will keep score.)

Peter Bergen:

The war on terror, sometimes known as the "Global War on Terror" or by the clunky acronym GWOT, became the lens through which the Bush administration judged almost all of its foreign policy decisions. That proved to be dangerously counterproductive on several levels.

James Phillips and George E. Bisharat: What's Israel trying to accomplish in Gaza? A debate.

Jay Bookman:

The border between a necessity and a mistake isn’t as clearly marked as the border between nations. So when Israeli troops crossed the line that separates Israel from Gaza this week, they may also have strayed across the line into a mistake.

Katrina vanden Heuvel, editor and publisher of The Nation, writes Obama Must Get Afghanistan Right:

Meanwhile, the federally funded, 25-year-old United States Institute of Peace, independent and non-partisan, but tinged right of center, issued a new report today in conjunction with a speech by General David Petraeus, in which he "predicted a long war in Afghanistan, without quantifying it." The report, The Future of Afghanistan, is a collection of essays written by 10 experts whose résumés you can read here. They are Marvin G. Weinbaum, Amin Tarzi, Barnett R. Rubin, William Maley, Nader Nadery, Jolyon Leslie, Grant Kippen, Ali A. Jalali, Haseeb Humayoon, and Sippi Azarbaijani-Moghaddam.

• • •

The Overnight News Digest is posted and includes the story Pakistan fires official who confirmed Mumbai gunman's identity.

This evening's Rescue Rangers are srkp23, HansScholl, ItsJessMe, grog, taylormattd, vcmvo2, and Elise as editor.

The diaries up for rescue tonight are:

• Mrs W offers concrete suggestions for how to help a struggling school, in A song of six-pence and toilet paper: how to help an economy-crushed school. (ItsJessMe)
• Bcgntn pays tribute to her deceased mother, thanking her for giving the gift of empathy, in A Day That Lives In Infamy. (ItsJessMe)
• Avenging Angel examines the utter failure of so-called "abstinence education" among other reasons as to why Red States Show Highest Teen Birth Rates. (grog)
• bb123 gives a few hints for resume readers and interviewers, in It's Bad Out There: Help Make it Less So. (ItsJessMe)
• rperks attended today's Senate hearing on the mess in Tennessee and provides this report in Sen. Boxer Jabs TVA Over Coal Ash Spill. (grog)
• Kevin Myles provides a nice summary of a progressive bill up for a vote in Congress and describes what we can do to help get it passed in Action Alert - Congress to vote on the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay and the Paycheck Fairness act. (taylormattd)
• Oooh, pretty graphs...that explain things. Watch as dreaminonempty lays out the leftward shift of the House in Dems Move Left: Political Chromatography in the House. (grog)
• OrangeClouds115 serves up an assortment of links in Food News Roundup (...Oops, Did I Say Roundup?) (srkp23)
• Dragon5616 finishes his interesting and well-researched historical series and speculates about The Inaugural Address, Part 5: What will Obama say? (HansScholl)
• Valtin describes How the U.S. Army's Field Manual Codified Torture - - and Still Does. (vcmvo2)
• Winter Rabbit tells a shameful, outrageous tale of Native American "Relocation" in America's West Bank (Edited and New Info.) (srkp23)

jotter has High Impact Diaries: January 7, 2009.

Elise has Top Comments: Read anything good lately?

Enjoy and please promote your own favorite diaries in this open thread.

Earlier today, President-Elect Obama made the case for quick government action to recover from the Bush Recession. Here's video highlights:

You can watch the full video at MSNBC and read the full text of the speech below the fold.

Politico, yesterday:

Obama, Dems face hard sell on stimulus

By DAVID ROGERS

Faced with record deficits and a skeptical public, Democrats are doubling up efforts to sell their economic recovery plan....

...public opinion still appears divided on the issue...

Politico, today:
     

Obama economic plan gets high marks

By ANDY BARR

By a large majority, voters favor President-elect Barack Obama’s wide-ranging policy prescriptions to aid the faltering economy, according to a new Politico/Allstate poll.

The survey of 1,007 registered voters conducted Dec. 27-29 showed that 79 percent of respondents favored Obama’s plan. The president-elect is advocating a $775 billion stimulus that includes a major investment in infrastructure projects and alternative energy as well as middle-class tax cuts, job training and health care reform.

Psssst ... Andy? Could you stroll over to the water cooler and let David know that Politico's very own poll disproves the entire premise of yesterday's story?

To be fair, the poll results were announced today, one day after Rogers wrote the story about the "skeptical public." But bells should have been going off anyway in any reasonable reader's head. The story reeked of anecdote and gut feeling, typified by this:

"There’s a sense out there that we keep throwing more and more money at the problem," pollster Neil Newhouse told Politico. "There’s a ton of skepticism out there whether this will make a difference."

When a reporter quotes a pollster who talks about "a sense out there" and "a ton of skepticism" without citing a poll, readers should be .. well, skeptical. No numbers were referenced, no surveys were pointed to in this entire story, nothing but opinions were bandied about by insiders and consultants.

Bottom line: When a story purports to be about public opinion but doesn't bother to include any polling number about public opinion, it should be met with "a ton of skepticism" because "there's a sense out there" that the reporter is not basing his story on anything but gut feeling, without identifying it as such.

With the announced retirement of Missouri's senior Senator, Christopher "Kit" Bond, who is prepared to hang up his spurs after four terms in Washington, the field is wide open for Bond's potential replacement in both parties.

The most prominent likely Democratic candidate - and probably the only person in either party who could clear the field in her primary - is Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. A 2010 race makes a lot of sense for Carnahan, daughter of Governor Mel Carnahan, Senator Jean Carnahan, and sister of Rep. Russ Carnahan. She gets a free shot at the race without having to abandon her current job, she's one of the most prominent Democratic politicians in the state and she polled strongly even when pitted against Bond.

Ben Smith at the Politico seems to think a Carnahan run is likely:

On the Democratic side, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, daughter of the late Sen. Mel Carnahan, will likely be the nominee. One Democratic operative said she has already been preparing for a Senate campaign – even before Bond announced his retirement.

Carnahan won more than 1.74 million votes statewide in 2008 — more than any other statewide Democratic candidate in Missouri history.

If she doesn't run, there's a good chance her brother Russ will, and Kansas City Congressman (and former Mayor) Emanuel Cleaver might explore a run. State Auditor Susan Montee is another possibility, and there may be still others (perhaps an enterprising State Representative or Senator like 2008 Congressional candidate Judy Baker, or a former statewide elected official like Roger Wilson or Joe Maxwell).

On the Republican side, however, it looks to be full-on chaos.

Former U.S. Senator Jim Talent, still smarting from his 2006 loss to Claire McCaskill, looks poised to run:

Two Republican operatives close to former Sen. Jim Talent say he is likely to run for the Missouri Senate seat of retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.).

One Republican operative close to Talent said that he has been "itching to run" since losing to Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) in 2006, and is eager to make a political comeback.

He won't be alone. Also apparently mulling a run:

• U.S. Rep. Sam Graves, one of the more controversial figures in the state party.
• Former U.S. House Majority Leader Rep. Roy Blunt. He's been in Washington dog's years, but he's still only 58.
• Former Congressman (and failed 2006 gubernatorial candidate) Kenny Hulshof. Hulshof got absolutely waxed in the governor's race by Democrat Jay Nixon, so he may be persona non grata in the state party.
• Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman. She lost in the Gov primary to Hulshof (she would likely have been a stronger general-election candidate), and may want to get back in the game.
• Current Missouri House Speaker Rod Jetton.
• Current U.S. Attorney and former House Speaker Catherine Hanaway.
• U.S. Rep. Jo Ann Emerson.

I don't think any candidate, including Talent, has the juice to clear the field, so it looks to get ugly.

I think I've found the perfect GOP candidate, however. He's young, handsome, and represents a fresh face for a divided Missouri GOP. He believes in "values", which surely both moderates and hard-core righties can agree upon. He gained valuable political experience from a failed 2006 run in the Ninth District.

His name even sounds like "Barack Obama", so he could become a fearsome general-election candidate appealing to Democrats and Republicans alike.

He is called Brock Olivo, and the Republicans should start recruiting him right away. I think it'll work out swimmingly for the GOP and good old Brock.

Seriously, though, the GOP is likely to have a pretty messy primary on their hands, while there's a chance Robin Carnahan could clear the field on our side. This would be a very, very good outcome for the Democratic Party.

But regardless of what happens, expect a tight race through November 2010. Consider the recent statewide results in Missouri:

MO-Sen 1998: Kit Bond (R) 53%, Jay Nixon (D) 44%
MO-Sen 2000: Mel Carnahan (D) 50%, John Ashcroft (R) 48%
MO-Gov 2000: Bob Holden (D) 49%, Jim Talent (R) 48%
MO-Pres 2000: George W. Bush (R) 50%, Al Gore (D) 47%
MO-Sen 2002: Jim Talent (R) 50%, Jean Carnahan (D) 49%
MO-Sen 2004: Kit Bond (R) 56%, Nancy Farmer (D) 43%
MO-Gov 2004: Matt Blunt (R) 51%, Claire McCaskill (D) 48%
MO-Pres 2004: George W. Bush (R) 53%, John Kerry (D) 46%
MO-Sen 2006: Claire McCaskill (D) 50%, Jim Talent (R) 47%
MO-Gov 2008: Jay Nixon (D) 58%, Kenny Hulshof (R) 39%
MO-Pres 2009: John McCain (R) 49%, Barack Obama (D) 49%

It's a good bet this one will be fairly close.

Anyone know what this means?

"Our majority was emaciated by electoral liposuction, our bold rebranding initiative put speed freaks to sleep and our approval rating nose-dived faster than Bozo on a bender."

—Republican House Policy Committee Chairman Thaddeus McCotter, who — help us — is "blogging" now for Andrew Breitbart’s "Big Hollywood"

Apparently this is what the Republicans had in mind when they sought to expand their online presence.

Of course, this will surprise you ... but a factual error was found on the internet. Chat away.

OK, it's ARG (one of the less reliable pollsters in the game), and it's a poll conducted over the holiday break, so it may not really be worth very much at all.

Still, for those who love polls and love elections, here's something for you to nibble on; an ARG poll pitting New Hampshire's senior Senator, Republican Judd Gregg, against Democratic Representatives Paul Hodes (NH-02) and Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01):

ARG. 12/27-29. Likely voters.

If this poll is to be believed (and it deserves a healthy helping of salt), Gregg fares quite a bit better against Shea-Porter than against Hodes, who holds him within single digits and under 50%.

Gregg has the edge, and if Republicans rebound a bit for 2010, he'll be favored going into the next election. He will not, however, get a free ride and he'll have to fight very hard to win a fourth term. Hodes is reportedly giving serious consideration to a Senate run, and he seems well positioned for one.

Then again, it's ARG, so perhaps it's best not to read too much into this poll. It's no secret that Dems are going to challenge Gregg hard, and it seems like that's a good play.

The seemingly invulnerable Sarah Pipeline has her first challenger at the plate:

Democrat Bob Poe, the former Alaska State Commissioner of Administration and former CEO of Anchorage Economic Development Corporation, said Wednesday he will announce tomorrow that he intends to seek the Democratic nomination for governor of Alaska.

Poe is viewed as a serious, viable candidate by state Democrats, though there are some other candidates that could derail Poe's bid to unseat Palin. Poe lacks statewide name recognition unlike a candidate such as Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat who came close to defeating Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) this past November.

It is expected, though, that Poe would run a centrist, pragmatic campaign as an alternative to Palin.

Democrats feel that Palin's vice presidential run brought to light more negative information about the governor than Alaskans had previously encountered, opening the door for a successful Democratic challenge. Still, they acknowledge that Palin's still-unknown political ambitions on a national level are a key variable in the race.

Berkowitz is more likely to try another House race (against a weaker candidate in scandal-plagued Don Young) than a race for Governor against Palin. All the polling for that race, from start to finish, showed Berkowitz beating Young, indicating how difficult a state Alaska is to poll.

Palin's favorables are still pretty high, last time we checked - 60% favorable, 38% unfavorable. So it'll be a tough race for Bob Poe, and as we saw in 2008, even popular Democrats, like Berkowitz and Mark Begich, have trouble in Alaska, even against crooked Republicans like Young and Ted Stevens.

It should be a fun one, though. The chances of beating Palin are very low, but it will be nice to have her in the media spotlight again in 2010. Even a victory for her in 2010 could damage her chances for 2012, if it's not "convincing" enough.

And it's very inspiring to see that even after a somewhat disappointing year in 2008 (the election of Mark Begich notwithstanding), Alaska Democrats are serious about taking on the state's most popular Republican. It'll be a nice service to the rest of the nation if they can sting Palin just a little bit.

By the way, if you've wondered what the Sarahcuda has been up to of late, check this out:

I'm excited that we'll still have Palin to kick around for years to come.

Let the speculation be ended:

Chris Matthews, the host of the MSNBC program "Hardball," told his staff on Wednesday night that he would not run for the Senate in 2010 from Pennsylvania.

While a Tweety candidacy no doubt would have been extremely entertaining, many Democrats prefer their candidates misogyny-free, and the entertainment could quickly have become divisive.

This leaves Patrick Murphy (PA-08) and Allyson Schwartz (PA-13) as among the most likely challengers to five-term Republican Senator Arlen Specter. Specter may first face a primary challenge from Club for Growth Pat Toomey, who came close to knocking him off in 2004. Research 2000 polling for Daily Kos shows Specter getting under 50% in that primary match-up and in general election head to heads against both Murphy and Schwartz.

Much depends on the political environment in 2010, of course, but at the moment, it appears that Specter would be a tough but not impossible opponent for any of the rumored Democrats. But without question, the best chance for a Democratic pick-up is for Toomey to win the Republican primary.

• Unbelievable.

  WASHINGTON – The Army said Wednesday that 7,000 family members of soldiers killed in the Iraq or Afghan wars mistakenly were sent letters addressing them as "John Doe." Army Chief of Staff Gen. George W. Casey, Jr., was sending a personal letter to all the families who received the improperly addressed letters as the result of a printing error, the Army said.

• Larry Craig has given up on the appeals process to have his sex sting conviction overturned.
• December's retail numbers are in and were worse than predicted. Even discount chains like Wal-Mart missed their targets.
• Protestors in Oakland, CA turned violent yesterday while protesting the new years shooting of an unarmed man at a BART station. During yesterdays riot, more than a dozen storefronts were vandalized or destroyed, along with numerous vehicles (including the Oakland Mayor's Lexus). More than 100 arrests were made after the crowd refused to disperse.
• Scientists aren't certain what is causing pelicans to fall like rain. Dazed and confused pelicans have been turning up all along the west coast.
• Wendy Norris from the Colorado Independent reports that Michael "heckuva job" Brownie has been forced to evacuate from his Boulder, CO area home due to wildfire.
• President-elect Obama appears to set to revamp the Homeland Security department.
• The AARP announced its list of legislative priorities for the newly-seated congress, citing the economy and healthcare as top priorities:

  With more than 40 million members among the crucial bloc of voters 50 or older, the nonpartisan AARP is in a position to do just that and to be a major player in the Obama administration’s health reform push, for which it has been preparing for at least two years.

  - DemFromCT

• If coming to DC for the inauguration and contemplating the Netroots Nation Yes We Can Party, don't hestiate any longer- tickets are going fast.
• Andy Stern from the SEIU will be doing a live Q&A at 4:15 est about the SEIU's new Change that Works campaign to pass the Employee Free Choice, Health Care reform, and an Economic Recovery package. You can submit live questions here.

At this point, I'd bet against Arnold actually running for Senate, but if he were in fact to do so, here are the numbers pitting him against California's junior Democratic Senator, Barbara Boxer:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines).

Neither candidate should be exactly thrilled about these numbers.

For the Governator, the best news is obviously in the toplines; he's within single digits of a three-term incumbent, and has her under 50%. That certainly indicates that she's vulnerable, and that Ah-nold might have a shot.

Well, except for the fact that he has little room to grow - his name recognition is near-universal, 93% of respondents have an opinion of him, and his abysmal 42/51 favorable/unfavorable numbers suggest that a majority of Californians agree that this Terminator is an obsolete model (yeah, I saw Terminator III, sue me).

Boxer's own favorables aren't great (48/46), but at least they're positive. In fact, Arnold's favorables are bad enough - and the toplines not quite good enough - that this polling would seem to suggest Arnold not be a Running Man for any office in 2010.

On the flip side, Boxer's top-line numbers (as stated) are pretty uninspiring, and they certainly show she's vulnerable. As the political climate is likely to get worse between now and 2010, Boxer could have a real race on her hands if the GOP can find a good enough candidate.

There's the rub, however; they don't exactly have a wealth of good candidates for the seat. Two of the stronger ones - Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman - are likely running for Governor, which leaves the field emptier, and Arnold himself, as stated, doesn't look all that strong against Boxer.

Another reason for optimism - despite Arnold's vaunted moderation and purported strength among Democrats (which helped him to a big reelection victory in 2006), Boxer gets more support from Republicans than Arnie does from Dems.

Overall, the potential is there for the GOP to at least throw a good scare into Boxer; they need to find the right candidate. With Arnold's favorables in the proverbial toilet, he doesn't seem to be the Predator they're looking for. What they should do is find a likable, effective and moderate member of the State Assembly or Senate with room to grow - a Kay Hagan type, say - or a city mayor like San Diego's Jerry Sanders (a prominent supporter of marriage equality). The problem there, however, is that running statewide in the nation's largest state - especially against a three-term Senator - requires gobs of money - particularly for a Republican, particularly for a lesser-known candidate.

So we'll have to see what the California GOP comes up with. Boxer and Dianne Feinstein have been solidly entrenched for the bulk of the past two decades, and this might be the GOP's best shot in a while to take one of them out. At this point, though, that seems easier said than done.

It's official: Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.

In a just completed joint session of Congress, the electoral votes from the November 4th election have been tallied, and Obama has been formally declared the winner. As expected, Obama received 365 votes, while John McCain received 173 votes. Now that's a mandate.

Emerging from his undisclosed location for the last time to preside as president of the Senate, Dick Cheney managed to make the official announcement with barely a snarl.

One day before the announcement of Tim Kaine as the incoming chair of the DNC, Chris Matthews heaped praise Howard Dean for successfully implementing a 50-state strategy and turning the DNC around.

Matthews asked Dean what his future plans are. Dean said he'd be doing some work in the private sector, but most importantly, would push for the health care reform this country needs.

Dean still has a couple more weeks on the job -- and what a tremendous job he has done. He deserves as much credit as anyone outside the Obama campaign for what happened in 2008.

It looks like Arlen Specter is emerging as the point man for Republican efforts to take President-elect Obama "down a peg," by stymying the confirmation of Eric Holder as Attorney General.

Speaking from the Senate floor on Tuesday, Specter, who had previously said he had "not taken any position" on the nominee, blasted Holder, comparing him to Alberto Gonzales. In less than two months, Specter went from saying that Holder's role in the pardon of Marc Rich would be ''a factor to consider,'' to comparing him to the worst Attorney General in recent memory. Patrick Leahy responded to Specter's ridiculous assertion, saying:

Any effort to question his character is unfounded. Every Republican voted for Alberto Gonzales, and felt his character merited confirmation. Certainly Eric Holder greatly exceeds that test.

That's putting it mildly. Specter has the gall to compare Holder to the man whose resume includes: politicizing the Department of Justice; who claimed, under oath, to Arlen Specter, that there was no guarantee of habeus corpus in the Constitution; who was intimately involved in carrying out and covering up George Bush's warrantless, domestic wiretap program; and who helped craft the administration's torture policy, before finally, with the threat of impeachment hanging over his head, resigning in disgrace.

Specter went from having no position to full-blown, hyperbolic outrage in a matter of weeks. What happened? Is he worried about a GOP-financed primary opponent in 2010? Afraid his Republican pals will threaten is committee assignments again?  Or is he just following orders from Karl Rove?

And while Specter may be the point man on this Republican-led smear, Chuck Grassley is doing his part, making good on his promise from last month, to tie Holder to the scandal-plagued Rod Blagojevich:

It signals that it’s not going to be a smooth confirmation ... we need to know what the relationship is with Governor Blagojevich. And I don’t say that in denigrating in any way except Governor Blagojevich’s recent troubles raises questions with anybody that’s had a relationship with him.

And by the way, It seems that consistency isn't a concern for Grassley, given that moments before he was insisting that Roland Burris should be immediately seated in the U.S. Senate.

The apparent plan here is to force Barack Obama to spend political capital on getting Eric Holder confirmed. And what's also apparent is that, as has been true for the past eight years, when Karl Rove says jump, Republicans ask, how high...or low.

It wasn't all that long ago that the conventional wisdom had Democrats having to fight hard to hold their gains in 2010, but if Republicans keep retiring at the rate they've been at since November, the GOP is going to end up scrambling for a lot of open seats that used to have (R) next to the name.  The latest GOP Senator to pull his hat from the ring is Kit Bond.

High-ranking Missouri Republicans say Sen. Kit Bond plans to announce this morning that he will not seek re-election in 2010.

Podiums everywhere will feel safer, knowing that they're not going to be subject to Bond's red-faced pounding.  And the auto industry should automatically recover some viability, considering that they're no longer going to be "protected" by the guy who referred to fuel-efficient vehicles as "clown cars."

Now the question is: who will be fighting for that spot in 2010?

On the Democratic side, Robin Carnahan was far and away the leading candidate. Her upcoming duel with Bond had been anticipated and talked about even before she settled into her current spot as Missouri Secretary of State. The change of ticket on the GOP side could open up other possibilities, but Robin -- generally considered the most effective of the political Carnahan clan -- certainly has the inside track.

But what about the GOP side of the aisle? 9th District Congressman Kenny Hulshof was crushed by Jay Nixon in the gubernatorial race, but he spent a lot of time and money establishing state wide name recognition that could give him a boost. GOP supporters kept Jim Talent on ice long enough to pull him back for his first Senate run, and he is still much believed in conservative think tank land. There's a chance he could be thawed out again for a repeat. 6th District Congressman Sam Graves is a possibility.  So is State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who already had feelers out for a run against Claire McCaskill in 2012.  Steeleman lost to Husholf in the primary for the governor's race, but Husholf didn't look very good through the general, and ran an ineffective campaign. Steeleman might well win a rematch.

And of course there's "I've done all I set out to do in one term" retiring Gov. Matt Blunt, who is fleeing Jefferson City in hopes that there will be less effort to unearth whatever skeleton he is hiding (and rumor has it this one is T-Rex sized) if he's out of office. Having succeeded in burning enough email to disguise his actions, might he be tempted to jump back in the fray? He's certainly made noises about a possible future run -- despite approval ratings in the W territory.

With any luck, all of them will run.

Update [2009-1-8 12:0:57 by Devilstower]: Bond has delivered his retirement speech, and another candidate was in the stands.

U.S. Attorney Catherine Hanaway, former speaker of the Missouri House, was on hand for the announcement. The Republican was the keynote speaker at the governor's prayer breakfast in Jefferson City today.

More discussion in kann's diary on this topic.